Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No

Pearl Judea ()
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Pearl Judea: Department of Computer Science, University of California – Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1596, USA

Journal of Causal Inference, 2014, vol. 2, issue 1, 109-112

Abstract: Conventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of nonparametric causal analysis. This note describes this peculiarity and speculates on its implications.

Keywords: policy evaluation; transportability; causal effects; identification; instrumental variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:causin:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p:4:n:6

DOI: 10.1515/jci-2014-0017

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