An Empirical Examination of Aging’s Ramifications on Large-scale Agriculture: China’s Perspective

Ji Mingbo, Ying Jiang, Shao Xuyang and Tian Yihao ()
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Ji Mingbo: School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Ying Jiang: School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Shao Xuyang: Institute for Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106, China
Tian Yihao: School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, 2024, vol. 18, issue 1, 11

Abstract: Population aging has become a significant issue faced by major global economies. The rapid urbanisation process in China has led to a higher rate of aging in rural areas compared to urban areas. Existing studies have predominantly focused on the impact of aging on agricultural economics and production, with limited exploration into its effects on large-scale agriculture. Given the importance of large-scale agriculture as a crucial initiative for expanding agricultural investment and increasing land capital accumulation, it is pertinent to further investigate the implications of aging in this sector. The empirical examination of the impact of population aging on large-scale agriculture holds significant relevance for developing countries globally. These nations face dual challenges: an aging population and the need for agricultural modernisation. Research can aid in formulating targeted policies to address labour shortages, agricultural technological innovation, and market dynamics, thereby promoting sustainable development and food security. This study utilises data from China’s Third National Agricultural Census and employs measurements of aging at both the rural household and county-city dimensions. The analysis includes an examination of the moderating effects of per capita arable land area and the level of mechanisation on the impact of aging on large-scale agriculture. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) From the perspective of rural households, aging leads to an increase in the age of the rural labour force, resulting in a significant decrease in the probability of rural households participating in large-scale agriculture. (2) At the county-city level, aging contributes to a decline in the proportion of the population participating in large-scale agriculture, which is detrimental to the development of this sector. (3) In certain circumstances, the negative impact of aging on large-scale agriculture is exacerbated in areas with higher levels of agricultural mechanisation.

Keywords: aging; large-scale agriculture; agricultural mechanisation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:18:y:2024:i:1:p:11:n:1002

DOI: 10.1515/econ-2022-0094

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