Bayesian Predictions for Exponentially Distributed Failure Times With One Change-Point

Abdel-Aty Y., Franz J. and Mahmoud M. A. W.
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Abdel-Aty Y.: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Al-Azhar University, Nasr City, Cairo 11884, Egypt, and Institut für Mathematische Stochastik, Technische Universität Dresden, D-01062 Dresden, Germany
Franz J.: Institut für Mathematische Stochastik, Technische Universität Dresden, D-01062 Dresden, Germany
Mahmoud M. A. W.: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Al-Azhar University, Nasr City, Cairo 11884, Egypt

Stochastics and Quality Control, 2003, vol. 18, issue 2, 195-207

Abstract: Suppose that a number of items is put on operation and that their life times are identically exponentially distributed up to a time a, when the operating conditions change resulting in a different failure intensity of the exponential distribution for those items which have survived the change-point a. Predictions are made for the lifetime of operating items on condition of observed failures of a part of the items before and after the change-point a. The predictions are based on an Bayes approach, which is briefly introduced. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1515/EQC.2003.195

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