A Synthetic Control Assessment of the Green Paradox: The Role of Climate Action Plans

Steinkraus Arne
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Steinkraus Arne: Braunschweig University of Technology,Braunschweig, Germany

German Economic Review, 2019, vol. 20, issue 4, e545-e570

Abstract: This paper extends the green paradox literature by providing empirical insights into its existence. To check the green paradox theory, I analyse the production of coal in four major coal-producing US states that announced a greenhouse gas action plan. To form a statement on whether there is a treatment effect caused by the green policy, I employ Synthetic Control Methods to calculate counterfactual coal production trajectories. I find that Montana experienced a high and statistically significant increase in coal production that is supported by a set of validity indicators. However, there is no evidence for a paradox in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Keywords: Synthetic control method; green paradox; coal; climate action plans (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1111/geer.12176

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