Addressing Balance of Payment Disequilibrium Through Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

Agu Christian (), Obodoechi Divine Ndubuisi () and Nebo Ifeanyi Kennedy ()
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Agu Christian: Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
Obodoechi Divine Ndubuisi: Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
Nebo Ifeanyi Kennedy: Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria

Journal of Globalization and Development, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 147-169

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment between 1981 and 2020. To achieve the broad objective, two specific objectives were set out, viz: investigate the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment; and examine the level of impact of exchange rate volatility on balance of payment in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings of the study show that non-oil exports have had a strong positive impact on Nigeria’s balance of payment within the period under study both in the short and long-run. It shows that a percentage increase in non-oil export increases the balance of payment (surplus) by 31.47 % in the long-run. However, exchange rate was shown to have had a negative blow on Nigeria’s balance of payment, though not statistically significant. The study therefore recommend among others that, for Nigeria to enjoy a surplus balance of payment, which is one of her major macroeconomic goals, there is the need to shift attention to the non-oil sector which has always been the main source of her foreign exchange earnings prior to the discovery of crude oil.

Keywords: ARDL; balance of payment; ECM; exchange rate; non-oil export (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B27 B41 F01 F31 L70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2022-0026

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