The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam
Finn Tarp (),
Hai Nguyen (),
Clemens Breisinger () and
Channing Arndt ()
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McCoy Simon: University of Copenhagen
Journal of Globalization and Development, 2011, vol. 2, issue 1, 1-31
Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.
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Working Paper: Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam (2010)
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