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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

James Thurlow, Finn Tarp (), McCoy Simon, Hai Nguyen (), Clemens Breisinger () and Channing Arndt ()
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McCoy Simon: University of Copenhagen

Journal of Globalization and Development, 2011, vol. 2, issue 1, 1-31

Abstract: Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Date: 2011
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