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Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class

Maurizio Bussolo (), Rafael De Hoyos (), Denis Medvedev and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe ()

Journal of Globalization and Development, 2012, vol. 2, issue 2, 1-29

Abstract: Over the past two decades, global inequality changed little despite significant structural shifts. Sustained growth in China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while many African countries fell behind. This paper assesses the distribution effects of a continuation of these trends. Growth in China and India will still drive the convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will join the global middle class. However, these positive developments will be somewhat offset by widening income disparities within countries, as fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills.

Date: 2012
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