Causal inference under over-simplified longitudinal causal models

Étiévant Lola () and Viallon Vivian ()
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Étiévant Lola: Institut Camille Jordan, Villeurbanne 69622, France
Viallon Vivian: Nutritional Methodology and Biostatistics, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France

The International Journal of Biostatistics, 2022, vol. 18, issue 2, 421-437

Abstract: Many causal models of interest in epidemiology involve longitudinal exposures, confounders and mediators. However, repeated measurements are not always available or used in practice, leading analysts to overlook the time-varying nature of exposures and work under over-simplified causal models. Our objective is to assess whether – and how – causal effects identified under such misspecified causal models relates to true causal effects of interest. We derive sufficient conditions ensuring that the quantities estimated in practice under over-simplified causal models can be expressed as weighted averages of longitudinal causal effects of interest. Unsurprisingly, these sufficient conditions are very restrictive, and our results state that the quantities estimated in practice should be interpreted with caution in general, as they usually do not relate to any longitudinal causal effect of interest. Our simulations further illustrate that the bias between the quantities estimated in practice and the weighted averages of longitudinal causal effects of interest can be substantial. Overall, our results confirm the need for repeated measurements to conduct proper analyses and/or the development of sensitivity analyses when they are not available.

Keywords: causal inference; identifiability; longitudinal model; structural causal model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2020-0081

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