Cut-Off Estimation and Medical Decision Making Based on a Continuous Prognostic Factor: The Prediction of Kidney Graft Failure

Foucher Yohann, Giral Magali, Soulillou Jean-Paul and Daurès Jean-Pierre
Additional contact information
Foucher Yohann: Nantes University
Giral Magali: INSERM U643
Soulillou Jean-Paul: INSERM U643
Daurès Jean-Pierre: University Institut of Clinical Research

The International Journal of Biostatistics, 2012, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: The determination of a cut-off value for a continuous prognostic test is an important problem, which is statistically challenging and practically important for risk assessment. We propose in this paper a method to estimate the optimal cut-off from this type of longitudinal data with censored failure times. The principle is to combine the prognostic error rates of false positives and false negatives with a cost function, which has the advantages to be statistically convenient and to be directly associated with the decision-making. Simulations were performed and the results demonstrate the interest of our approach compared to a reference method. The method is also illustrated by predicting the long-term survival of kidney transplant recipients from the 1-year creatinine clearance.

Keywords: cut-off estimation; censored data; prognostic test; decision-making; cost function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1215

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