Arbeitskräftepotential und demografischer Wandel. Modellrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland bis 2050

Bomsdorf Eckart

Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, 2008, vol. 49, issue 1, 123-146

Abstract: The debate concerning demographic changes in Germany is mostly lead by their implications to social security mechanisms. The development of the labour market is addressed in extended discussions only. This paper provides a draft of demographic changes in Germany up to the year 2050 and quantifies their impact on the potential labour force. The development of the population size and the number of people of working age is analysed and the dependency of these parameters on the components of the population is quantified by regression analysis. Finally, one possible future path for the working population is proposed. This is not only done with the given “status quo” assumptions in mind, but also with regard to changes in the labour force participation rate as well as to the already adopted increase of the legal retirement age (67 years). In addition, detailed results concerning possible future developments in the volume and proportion of people of working age in the population as well as the working population itself are provided. It is shown that the raise of the legal pension age as well as an increase in female labour participation can help to make up for negative demographic changes concerning the working population.

Keywords: demographic change; projection; potential labour force; retirement age (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:jbwige:v:49:y:2008:i:1:p:123-146:n:16

DOI: 10.1524/jbwg.2008.49.1.123

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