Die Finanzkrise, die Ökonomen, der Crashprophet" und die Wissenschaft von der Ökonomie

Otte Max
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Otte Max: IFVE Institut für Vermögensentwicklung GmbH, Köln, Deutschland

Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, 2011, vol. 52, issue 1, 191-217

Abstract: The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 was a clear and logical result of the financial and economic conditions which preceded it, yet highly respected economists the world over failed to foresee the crash, and many continued to discount the possibility of a recession even after the crisis was well underway. Inaccurate economic forecasting is by no means a new phenomenon, and this paper examines some of the institutional and psychological grounds for economists′ faulty track record. The paper also discusses issues associated with modern economic modelling techniques and offers a brief assessment of where the world economy stands today as well as where it might be heading.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:jbwige:v:52:y:2011:i:1:p:191-217:n:9

DOI: 10.1524/jbwg.2011.0009

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