Increasing Evacuation Communication Through ICTs: An Agent-based Model Demonstrating Evacuation Practices and the Resulting Traffic Congestion in the Rush to the Road

Stephens Keri K. (), Jafari Ehsan, Boyles Stephen, Ford Jessica L. and Zhu Yaguang
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Stephens Keri K.: Associate Professor Organizational Communication and Technology, Department of Communication Studies, Moody College of Communication, 2504A Whitis Ave., Stop A1105, Austin, TX 78712
Boyles Stephen: Cockrell School of Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, USA
Zhu Yaguang: Moody College of Communication, The University of Texas at Austin, USA

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2015, vol. 12, issue 3, 497-528

Abstract: Understanding evacuation practices and outcomes helps crisis and disaster personnel plan, manage, and rebuild during disasters. Yet the recent expansion in the number of information and communication technologies (ICTs) available to individuals and organizations has changed the speed and reach of evacuation-related messages. This study explores ICTs’ influences on evacuation decision-making and traffic congestion. Drawing from both social science and transportation science, we develop a model representative of individual decision making outcomes based on the amount of ICT use, evacuation sources, and the degree of evacuation urgency. We compare the evacuation responses when individuals receive both advance notice of evacuation (ANE) and urgent evacuation (UE) messages under conditions of no ICTs and prolific ICT use. Our findings from the scenarios when there is widespread ICT use reveal a shift in the evacuation time-scale, resulting in traffic congestion early in the evacuation cycle. The effects of this congestion in urgent situations are significantly worse than traffic congestion in the advance notice condition. Even under conditions where face-to-face communication is the only option, evacuations still occur, but at a slower rate, and there are virtually no traffic congestion issues. Our discussion elaborates on the theoretical contributions and focuses on how ICTs have changed evacuation behavior. Future research is needed to explore how to compensate for the rush to the road.

Keywords: communication; crisis; disaster; evacuation; ICTs; transportation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2014-0075

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