Optimal Blends of History and Intelligence for Robust Antiterrorism Policy

Latek Maciej M, Mussavi Rizi Seyed M and Alsheddi Tariq A
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Latek Maciej M: George Mason University
Mussavi Rizi Seyed M: George Mason University
Alsheddi Tariq A: King Fahd Security College

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2011, vol. 8, issue 1, 23

Abstract: Antiterrorism analysis requires that security agencies blend evidence on historical patterns of terrorist behavior with incomplete intelligence on terrorist adversaries to predict possible terrorist operations and devise appropriate countermeasures. We model interactions between reactive, adaptive and intelligent adversaries embedded in minimally sufficient organizational settings to study the optimal analytic mixture, expressed as historical memory reach-back and the number of anticipatory scenarios, that should be used to design antiterrorism policy. We show that history is a valuable source of information when the terrorist organization evolves and acquires new capabilities at such a rapid pace that makes optimal strategies advocated by game-theoretic reasoning unlikely to succeed.

Keywords: antiterrorism; multiagent simulation; intelligence analysis; anticipatory thinking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1795

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