The Behavior of Divorce Rates: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Marko Korhonen and Puhakka Mikko
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Puhakka Mikko: Department of Economics, Accounting and Finance, The University of Oulu Business School, 90014Oulu, Finland

Journal of Time Series Econometrics, 2021, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: We explore the behavior of the divorce rates in 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2010. Many studies have found persistence in divorce rates after changes in divorce laws. We formulate a nonlinear model to explain the behavior of divorce rates, over time, after a large change in divorce rate, including changes in divorce laws.We argue that the stationary smooth transition regression (STR) approach is useful in analyzing divorce rates. We reject the persistence result and, in addition, provide evidence on asymmetries in divorce rates. This suggests that one should be careful when interpreting the effects of the changes in divorce rates (especially changes in the divorce and family laws) on divorce rates.

Keywords: divorce law; divorce rate; persistence; smooth transition regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 J12 K36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2019-0018

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