Bayesian analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using a Poisson process with change-points

Majidizadeh Masoud ()
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Majidizadeh Masoud: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Evin, Tehran, Iran

Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 2024, vol. 30, issue 4, 449-465

Abstract: Analyzing COVID-19 data presents a challenge in Bayesian computations of the Poisson process because the experimental conditions are not under control. This lack of homogeneity can lead to inconsistent model parameters, which violates the assumptions of Bayesian inference. In this paper, we study the multiple change-point detection problem from this viewpoint for a non-homogeneous sample path of the Poisson process as the response variable. The rate parameters are linked to some explanatory using a generalized linear model. The number of change-points is considered to be unknown as well as their locations. We introduce a Bayesian paradigm to estimate the number and location of change-points. We also present an adaptive RJMCMC algorithm to generate pseudo-random samples from the posterior distributions. We apply the proposed model to analyze the COVID-19 infection curves from different countries and identify patterns of cases. We also assess the efficacy of interventions, such as vaccination and public health emergency responses, implemented by different countries. The results of the analysis provide valuable insights into the spread of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of interventions. The proposed model can be used to inform public health decision-making and help to improve the management of the pandemic.

Keywords: Poisson process; intensity function; COVID-19; multiple change-points; reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2024-2020

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