Doppelte Haltelinie und steigende Pflegebeitragssätze – ein impliziter Bundeszuschuss zur Pflegeversicherung der RentnerInnen

Hagist Christian () and Seuffert Stefan ()
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Hagist Christian: Lehrstuhl für Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, 56179 VallendarGermany
Seuffert Stefan: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Lehrstuhl für Finanzwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, 79085 FreiburgGermany

Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2021, vol. 22, issue 1, 54-66

Abstract: The two “stop lines” limiting replacement rate and contribution rate in the German Pension Insurance (GRV) cause a linkage to long-term-care insurance (SPV) such that changes in SPV contribution rates will affect GRV expenditures in the future. Stefan Seuffert and Christian Hagist describe the underlying mechanism and show that a perpetuation of the two “stop lines” after 2025 would be equivalent to the introduction of a federal subsidy to SPV in favor of pensioners. Due to the two “stop lines” the change in social security contribution rates from January 1st, 2019 imply yearly excess expenditures of about 2 billion euros starting in 2024. Due to increasing expenditures in SPV until 2060 a continuation of the two “stop lines” would induce a growing real term implicit federal subsidy to the SPV of up to 9 bn euros per year.

Keywords: Beitragssatz; Beitragssatzentwicklung; Doppelte Haltelinie; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Rentenausgaben; Rentenniveau; Rentenprojektion; Rentenversicherung; Rentenwert; Soziale Pflegeversicherung (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 H55 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1515/pwp-2020-0043

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