Dynamic Multinomial Ordered Choice with an Application to the Estimation of Monetary Policy Rules
Basu Deepankar () and
Robert de Jong
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Basu Deepankar: Ohio State University
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2007, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-35
We present a novel specification of a dynamic multinomial ordered choice model, where the latent variable is a function of strictly stationary exogenous variables and lags of the choice variable. We prove that such a model with weakly dependent errors will have a strictly stationary solution which is L-2 near epoch dependent. We also derive consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for a probit specification of the model. We illustrate a possible application of the model by estimating a discrete version of a robust ``difference" monetary policy rule for the period 1990:2006 at a monthly frequency.
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