Dynamic Multinomial Ordered Choice with an Application to the Estimation of Monetary Policy Rules

Basu Deepankar () and Robert de Jong
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Basu Deepankar: Ohio State University

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2007, vol. 11, issue 4, 35

Abstract: We present a novel specification of a dynamic multinomial ordered choice model, where the latent variable is a function of strictly stationary exogenous variables and lags of the choice variable. We prove that such a model with weakly dependent errors will have a strictly stationary solution which is L-2 near epoch dependent. We also derive consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for a probit specification of the model. We illustrate a possible application of the model by estimating a discrete version of a robust ``difference" monetary policy rule for the period 1990:2006 at a monthly frequency.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1507

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