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A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights

Luc Bauwens () and Giuseppe Storti ()

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2009, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-33

Abstract: We present a novel GARCH model that accounts for time varying, state dependent, persistence in the volatility dynamics. The proposed model generalizes the component GARCH model of Ding and Granger (1996). The volatility is modelled as a convex combination of unobserved GARCH components where the combination weights are time varying as a function of appropriately chosen state variables. In order to make inference on the model parameters, we develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Adopting a fully Bayesian approach allows to easily obtain medium and long term predictions of relevant risk measures such as value at risk. Finally we discuss the results of an application to a series of daily returns on the S&P500.

Date: 2009
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Related works:
Working Paper: A component GARCH model with time varying weights (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: A component GARCH model with time varying weights (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: A component GARCH model with time varying weights (2006)
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