Can we use seasonally adjusted variables in dynamic factor models?

Maximo Camacho, Yuliya Lovcha () and Gabriel Perez Quiros

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2015, vol. 19, issue 3, 377-391

Abstract: We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches of forecasting from dynamic factor models. The first approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual variables before estimating the model, while the alternative uses the non seasonally adjusted data in a model that endogenously accounts for seasonal adjustment. Our Monte Carlo analysis reveals that the performance of the former is always comparable to or even better than that of the latter in all the simulated scenarios. Our results have important implications for the factor models literature because they show the that the common practice of using seasonally adjusted data in this type of models is very accurate in terms of forecasting ability. Using five coincident indicators, we illustrate this result for US data.

Keywords: dynamic factor models; seasonal adjustment; short-term forecasting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E27 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0096

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