Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data

Norman Swanson ()

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 1996, vol. 1, issue 1, 20

Abstract: First-reported monthly and quarterly time-series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so-called "unrevised" or "first-reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests. For the purposes of real-time forecasting, as well as comparing professional forecasts with traditional econometric forecasts, the use of unrevised (or, even better, "real-time") data has a number of advantages over the use of fully revised data.

Date: 1996
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DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1012

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