Tests for Nonlinearity in EMS Exchange Rates

Jon Vilasuso and Steven Cunningham (cunninghams@husson.edu)

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 1996, vol. 1, issue 3, 16

Abstract: This paper tests for nonlinearity in EMS exchange rates using the bispectrum. The early experience of the ERM witnessed numerous realignments. We find that exchange rates follow a linear process over the period 1979-1987, consistent with the predictions of the realignment target zone model, where a stabilizing nonlinearity is absent. But from 1987-1992, no realignments occurred, and many currencies conformed to a nonlinear process, consistent with the credible target zone model where an inherent nonlinearity stabilizes exchange rates. However, the Italian lira and the Irish pound follow a linear process, which suggests that a target zone has not proven effective in stabilizing exchange rates.

Keywords: bispectrum; spectral analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1019

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