Testing cointegration in quantile regressions with an application to the term structure of interest rates

Kuriyama Nina ()
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Kuriyama Nina: School of Economics, Mingde Main Building, Renmin University of China, 59 Zhongguancun Street, Beijing 100872, China

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2016, vol. 20, issue 2, 107-121

Abstract: This paper proposes a cumulated sum (CUSUM) test for the null hypothesis of quantile cointegration. A fully modified quantile estimator is adopted for serial correlation and endogeneity corrections. The CUSUM statistic is composed of the partial sums of the residuals from the fully modified quantile regression. Under the null, the test statistic converges to a functional of Brownian motions. In the application to US interest rates of different maturities, evidence in favor of the expectations hypothesis for the term structure is found in the central part of the distributions of the Treasury bill rate and financial commercial paper rate, but in the tails of the constant maturity rate distribution.

Keywords: cointegration; fully modified estimator; quantile regression; term structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0107

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