Common time variation of parameters in reduced-form macroeconomic models

Dalibor Stevanovic

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2016, vol. 20, issue 2, 159-183

Abstract: Standard time varying parameter (TVP) models usually assume independent stochastic processes. In this paper, I show that the number of underlying sources of parameters’ time variation is likely to be small, and provide empirical evidence for factor structure amongst TVPs of popular macroeconomic models. In order to test for the presence of low dimension sources of time variation in parameters and estimate their magnitudes, I develop the factor time varying parameter (Factor-TVP) framework and apply it to [Primiceri, G.E. (2005), “Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy,” The Review of Economic Studies, 72, 821–852] monetary TVP-VAR model. I find that one factor explains most of the variability in VAR coefficients, while the stochastic volatility parameters vary independently. The inclusion of post-“Great Recession” data causes an important change within VAR coefficients and the procedure suggests two factors. The roots of variability in the VAR parameters are likely to have derived from the financial markets and the real sector. The TVP factors have predictive power for a large number of output, investment, and employment series, as well as for the term structure of interest rates.

Keywords: factor analysis; time varying parameter model; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E17 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0064 (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:159-183:n:3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.degruyter.com/journal/key/snde/html

DOI: 10.1515/snde-2014-0064

Access Statistics for this article

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics is currently edited by Bruce Mizrach

More articles in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().