A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA

Theodore Mariolis (), Konstantinos Konstantakis, Panayotis Michaelides and Mike Tsionas

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2019, vol. 23, issue 1, 16

Abstract: This paper incorporates the so-called Bhaduri-Marglin accumulation function in Goodwin’s original growth cycle model and econometrically estimates the proposed model for the case of the US economy in the time period 1960–2012, using a modern Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method. Based on our findings, the US economy follows an exhilarationist regime throughout our investigation period with the sole exception of an underconsumption regime for the time period 1974–1978. In general, the results suggest that the proposed approach is an appropriate vehicle for expanding and improving traditional Goodwin-type models.

Keywords: Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo methods; Bhaduri-Marglin accumulation function; Goodwin type models; US economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B51 C11 C62 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Working Paper: A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA (2019)
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DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0137

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