Economic dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations

David Aadland (), David Finnoff and Huang Kevin X.D.
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Huang Kevin X.D.: Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN, 37235, USA

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2020, vol. 25, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the nature of rational expectations equilibria for economic epidemiological models, with a particular focus on the behavioral origins and dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations. Unlike mathematical epidemiological models, economic epidemiological models can produce regions of indeterminacy or instability around the endemic steady states due to endogenous human responses to epidemiological circumstance variation, medical technology change, or health policy reform. We consider SI, SIS, SIR and SIRS versions of economic compartmental models and show how well-intentioned public policy may contribute to disease instability, uncertainty, and welfare losses.

Keywords: bifurcation; economic epidemiology; endogenous disease risk; indeterminacy; rational expectations; self-fulfilling prophecies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D1 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1515/snde-2019-0111

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