Inflation: Demand Pull or Cost Push? A Markov Switching Approach

Chen Pu () and Semmler Willi ()
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Chen Pu: School of Accounting Economics and Finance, Curtin University, Kent Street, Perth, WA 6102, Australia
Semmler Willi: Department of Economics, New School for Social Research, 79 Fifth Ave, New York, NY 10003, USA

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2025, vol. 29, issue 4, 469-481

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a Markov switching method to quantify the relative contributions of cost-push and demand-pull to current inflationary pressures. This approach aids in studying whether the inflation is short-lived or more persistent. We apply this method to Australian data and identify three episodes in the last 25 years when the inflation rate exceeded 4 %. All three episodes were primarily driven by cost-push factors. Our results reveal that monetary policy is more effective in controlling demand-pull inflation but less so in controlling cost-push inflation. This observation explains why the episodes of relatively higher inflation were predominantly driven by cost-push factors. Furthermore, we contrast our findings with US inflation drivers.

Keywords: Markov switching models; inflation; cost-push and demand-pull (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1515/snde-2023-0119

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