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Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation

David Selover (), Jensen Roderick V. and Kroll John
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Jensen Roderick V.: Wesleyan University
Kroll John: Old Dominion University

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2003, vol. 7, issue 3, 1-39

Abstract: This study investigates the synchronization of business cycles in different sectors of the economy. Business cycles in different industries or sectors have a tendency to synchronize with one another in what appears to be a national business cycle, yet trade between sectors may not be strong enough for one sector to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another sector. How are these sectors synchronized? This study suggests that the national business cycle results from a "mode-locking" phenomenon between different sectors, a nonlinear process through which weak coupling between oscillating systems (sectors) tends to synchronize the fluctuations between the oscillating systems (sectors). Simulations, statistical analysis, and spectral analysis are used to attempt to verify this hypothesis. Investigation reveals a moderate amount of econometric support for the sectoral mode-locking hypothesis of business cycle formation.

Date: 2003
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