Trend and Fuzzy Time Series Analysis of Live Births Registration in Northern Ghana

Nagumsi Abdulai, Nasiru Suleman (), Kobilla Abdul-Aziz Adam and Mustapha Mohammed Hashim Bamba
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Nagumsi Abdulai: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Mathematical Sciences, C. K. Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Navrongo, Ghana
Nasiru Suleman: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Mathematical Sciences, C. K. Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Navrongo, Ghana
Kobilla Abdul-Aziz Adam: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Mathematical Sciences, C. K. Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Navrongo, Ghana
Mustapha Mohammed Hashim Bamba: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Mathematical Sciences, C. K. Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Navrongo, Ghana

Statistics, Politics and Policy, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 65-85

Abstract: This study investigated four trend analysis models namely; linear, quadratic, semi log linear and semi log quadratic to study the pattern of live births registration in the Northern Region of Ghana. The study revealed that Semi log linear trend model is the best trend model for studying the pattern of live births registration in the Northern Region of Ghana based on AIC and BIC criteria. The study further fitted four existing fuzzy time series (FTS) models for forecasting live births registration in the Northern Region of Ghana. The Chen, Singh, Heuristic and Chen-Hsu models are the four models used to analyze the data.

Keywords: trend analysis; fuzzy time series; live births; Northern region; accuracy measures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0034

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