Is Intending to Have Children Rightist? A Research Note on Political Ideology and Fertility Intentions

Bruno Arpino and Mogi Ryohei ()
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Mogi Ryohei: The Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

Statistics, Politics and Policy, 2024, vol. 15, issue 2, 117-136

Abstract: Social scientists have long been interested in how attitudes and values influence fertility intentions and behaviors. The role of political ideology has, on the contrary, been overlooked. Right-wing people tend to be more religious, to hold more traditional views on gender roles and on the importance of the family. Therefore, right-wing people may be more likely to hold positive fertility intentions that individuals with other political orientations. In addition, political ideology may have an effect on fertility intention independent of other attitudes. Using two rounds of the European Social Survey, we show that people that position at the extreme right of the political ideology scale are more likely to intend to have a child during the three years following the interview. This association holds even after accounting for several socio-demographic and economic factors, values and attitudes. Heterogeneity tests show that the association is restricted to younger individuals (aged 20–34), with higher levels of education (at least upper secondary), and individuals in Eastern Europe. In Southern Europe right-wing individuals show significantly higher predicted probabilities of a positive fertility intention compared people that locate themselves in the political center. The statistically significant associations are also sizeable (differences in terms of predicted probabilities vary between 4 and 9 percentage points). These results point to the importance of considering a neglected factor in fertility research and contribute to the growing field of Political Demography.

Keywords: political ideology; fertility intentions; political demography; European social survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0038

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