A Geometric Model of Elections in Five Federal Democracies

Heggen Richard J. () and Cuzán Alfred G. ()
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Heggen Richard J.: Professor Emeritus of Civil Engineering, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Cuzán Alfred G.: Distinguished University Professor of Politology, 6491 University of West Florida , Pensacola, FL, USA

Statistics, Politics and Policy, 2024, vol. 15, issue 3, 273-286

Abstract: In an analysis of 1,825 state or provincial election outcomes in five federal democracies the rate of decay of incumbency (K) serves to partition the distribution of the vote for the incumbent party, the party of the head of government, between those who win a subsequent term and those who do not. In conjunction with the mean and standard deviation of the distribution, the weighted mean of the vote in re-election and defeat is identified. The model’s predictions are generally within 2–3 percentage points of the actual outcome.

Keywords: exponential decay; incumbent vote; truncated normal distribution; cost of ruling; spell in office; equipollent vote (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/spp-2024-0017

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