Determinants of Political Instability in ECOWAS (1991–2022)

Gbemudia Richard Uzoma () and Akachukwu Stanley Uche ()
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Gbemudia Richard Uzoma: Research Department, Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Lagos, Nigeria
Akachukwu Stanley Uche: Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade & Investment (BACITI) of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria

Statistics, Politics and Policy, 2025, vol. 16, issue 3, 305-329

Abstract: This study examined GDP per Capita, military expenditure, trade openness capital formation, inflation and unemployment as determinants of political instability in ECOWAS from 1991 to 2022. Four countries in ECOWAS that have experienced military coup/political instability (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger) and another four countries that have not had military coup (Cote dÍvore, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo) were used for the study. The article modeled the independent equations for each country to show how the various countries’ cross-sectional indicators/variables affect political instability. Findings show that the major determinants of political instability in ECOWAS are GDP per Capita, military expenditure, and trade openness. GDP per Capita is negatively related to political instability in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger. A 1 %, increase in GDP leads to a, 0.067 %. 0.002 %, 0.001 % and 0.041 % in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger respectively. Military expenditure has a negative influence on political instability in Burkina Faso, and Niger but positively influences in Mali. A 1 %, increase in military expenditure in Burkina Faso and Niger reduces political instability by 0.196 % and 0.045 % respectively. Trade openness positively impacts on political instability in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali. The statistics illustrate that a % increase in trade openness leads to about 0.0925 %, 0.029 % and 0.625 % in Burkina Faso in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali respectively. Hence, GDP per Capita, military expenditure, trade openness, and unemployment are the main drivers of political instability in the region. The results from the four countries that did not experience democratic reversal during the study period reveal that GDP per capita, military expenditure and unemployment are significant and inversely related to political instability. The results from the aggregate analysis of the countries without military coups show that military expenditure (0.155 %), unemployment (0.164 %) and GDPC (0.00045 %) are significant and inversely related to political instability in these countries. This suggests that these countries are susceptible to political instability. Thus, the study recommends that governments in the ECOWAS region should invest in people-oriented projects to lift citizens out of poverty, cater adequately for security agencies and minimize undue interference in their economy’s economic, political and social structure by foreign actors.

Keywords: ECOWAS; political instability; military expenditure; GDP per capita; military intervention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1515/spp-2024-0056

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