A Demographic Peace? Youth Bulges and Other Population-Related Causes of Domestic Conflict

Wagschal Uwe () and Metz Thomas
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Wagschal Uwe: University of Freiburg – Political Science, Freiburg, Germany
Metz Thomas: University of Freiburg – Political Science, Freiburg, Germany

Statistics, Politics and Policy, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1-2, 55-97

Abstract: The following article analyzes violent political conflicts. Starting from theoretical debates on the determinants of violent conflicts, it focuses on intrastate conflicts. The main explanatory factors which are analyzed from different perspectives are demographic factors. Not only the size of the population or the population density is relevant, but also the so-called youth bulge. Youth bulges, i.e. large cohorts of young people, are the main driving forces of war. Especially variants like male youth bulges are highly significant in the empirical analysis. The article uses different data sets for the analysis, like the Global Peace Index and the CONIS data. Various statistical methods are used in the analysis. The article also draws attention to intervening factors, which might intensify or lessen the impact of the youth bulge.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/spp-2017-0004

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