Further Analysis of the Markowitz Model of Utility with a Small Degree of Probability Distortion

David Peel and David Law

Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 2008, vol. 2, issue 3, 71-83

Abstract: Explanation of the Allais paradox and the preference of many for multiple prize lottery tickets provide a rationale for why a model of agent's choice under uncertainty should embody the assumption that they distort probabilities. However the degree of probability distortion required to explain gambling on long shots in Cumulative Prospect Theory appears problematic since it implies subjective expected rates of return are dramatically higher than objective returns. Here we show that a Markowitz model of expected utility, supplemented by a small degree of probability distortion, has qualitatively similar predictions as Cumulative Prospect Theory for numerous experimental outcomes as well as the indifference curves between expected return and objective probabilities for a given stake gamble. In addition we show how a small degree of probability distortion can lead to a preference for a multiple prize lottery which has a rather different prize structure and associated probabilities than the optimally chosen one prize lottery even though the utility gain is small.

Keywords: MARKOWITZ UTILITY FUNCTION; EXPO-VALUE UTILITY FUNCTION; PROBABILITY DISTORTION; GAMBLING (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/537 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:2:y:2008:i:3:p:71-83

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.jgbe.com/index_files/Page492.htm

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Gambling Business and Economics is currently edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School

More articles in Journal of Gambling Business and Economics from University of Buckingham Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dominic Cortis, University of Malta ().