REPLACEMENT REFEREES AND NFL BETTING MARKETS

Bryan McCannon

Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 2015, vol. 9, issue 2, 14-26

Abstract: Are betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices” in an uncertain environment. More points were scored and underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect even though irregularities in gambling markets were reported before the beginning of the season. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be identified.

Keywords: betting markets; efficiency; over-under; replacement referees; spread (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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