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The Ooghe-Joos-De Vos failure prédiction models: a cross-industry validation

Hubert Ooghe, Sofie Balcaen and Jan Camerlynck

Brussels Economic Review, 2003, vol. 46, issue 1, 39-70

Abstract: This study compares the predictive performances of the Ooghe-Joos-De Vos models across different industries and subgroups concerning size-class and annual accounts form. Type I, type II and unweighted error rates, Gini-coefficients and trade-off functions are analysed. The results indicate a wide variety of performances for the different subgroups. Firstly, both OJD models seem to perform best for the classical manufacturing industries, while they are poorer predictors for the service industries. Secondly, the short-term OJD model has the best predictive abilities for large companies and companies with a complete annual accounts form. In general, the performance differences of the short-term model are much larger than those of the medium-term model and, on average, the medium-term model shows a lower classification accuracy than the short-term model due to a stronger tendency to misclassify non-failing firms as failing.

Keywords: failure prédiction model; validation; performance measures; industry; size (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G33 M49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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