The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study

Sefa Işik and Fatih Cemil Ozbugday
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Sefa Işik: Department of Economics, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara, Turkey

Agricultural Economics, 2021, vol. 67, issue 3, 101-110

Abstract: Food price inflation has been a significant subject of debate in Turkey since food prices soared in 2018. The study examines the linkage between agricultural input prices and food prices in Turkey by using quantitative method approaches with the monthly data spanning from 2015-M01 to 2020-M01. A co-integration analysis is performed using the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach and Maki co-integration test with structural breaks. Additionally, the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) are applied to verify the results of the ARDL approach. The analysis demonstrates a significant, long-running relationship between agricultural input prices and food prices in Turkey. The long-run agricultural input price elasticities are found to be in the range of 1.30-1.36.

Keywords: autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL); food inflation; fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS); structural breaks; time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:67:y:2021:i:3:id:260-2020-agricecon

DOI: 10.17221/260/2020-AGRICECON

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