Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk produced in the Slovak Republic

Pavel Ačai, Ľubomír Valík and Denisa Liptáková
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Pavel Ačai: Institute of Chemical and Environmental Engineering and
Ľubomír Valík: Institute of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Health Protection, Faculty of Chemical and Food Technology, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Denisa Liptáková: Institute of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Health Protection, Faculty of Chemical and Food Technology, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Czech Journal of Food Sciences, 2014, vol. 32, issue 2, 122-131

Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain > 104 CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness.

Keywords: exposure assessment; risk characterisation; Monte Carlo simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnlcjf:v:32:y:2014:i:2:id:106-2013-cjfs

DOI: 10.17221/106/2013-CJFS

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