Geographical variability of sprucebark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic

T. Hlásny, L. Zajíčková, M. Turčáni, J. Holuša and Z. Sitková
Additional contact information
T. Hlásny: National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
L. Zajíčková: Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
M. Turčáni: Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
J. Holuša: Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
Z. Sitková: National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia

Journal of Forest Science, 2011, vol. 57, issue 6, 242-249

Abstract: Climate change is expected to influence the distribution and population dynamics of many insect pests, with potential severe impacts on forests. Spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col.: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is the most important forest insect pest in Europe whose development is strictly regulated by air temperature. Therefore, climate change is anticipated to induce changes in the pest's distribution and development. We used the PHENIPS model to evaluate climate change impacts on the distribution and voltinism of spruce bark beetle in the Czech Republic. Two future time periods - 2025-2050 (near future) and 2075-2100 (distant future) - are addressed. The period 1961-1990 is used as the reference. We found that while a two-generation regime dominated in the Czech Republic in the reference period, significant three-generation regime regions are projected to appear in the near future. In the distant future, the three-generation regime can be expected to occur over all existing coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The analysis of altitudinal shift of n-generation regime regions indicates noticeable expansion of Ips typographus development to higher elevations, leading for example to disappearance of one-generation regime regions in the distant future. Uncertainties and limitations of the presented findings are discussed as well.

Keywords: bark beetle altitudinal shift; climate change scenario; Ips typographus generations; temperature increase (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://jfs.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/104/2010-JFS.html (text/html)
http://jfs.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/104/2010-JFS.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnljfs:v:57:y:2011:i:6:id:104-2010-jfs

DOI: 10.17221/104/2010-JFS

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Forest Science is currently edited by Mgr. Ilona Procházková

More articles in Journal of Forest Science from Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ivo Andrle ().