Forest fire spatial modelling using ordered weighted averaging multi-criteria evaluation

Hassan Faramarzi, Seyd Mohsen Hosseini, Hamid Reza Pourghasemi and Mahdi Farnaghi
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Hassan Faramarzi: Department of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Seyd Mohsen Hosseini: Department of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Hamid Reza Pourghasemi: Department of Natural Resources and Environment Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
Mahdi Farnaghi: Department of Geo-Information Processing (GIP), Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands

Journal of Forest Science, 2021, vol. 67, issue 2, 87-100

Abstract: Forest fires are a major environmental issue because they are increasing as a consequence of climate change and global warming. The present study was aimed to model forest fire hazard using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) multi-criteria evaluation algorithm and to determine the role of human, climatic, and environmental factors in forest fire occurrence within the Golestan National Park (GNP), Iran. The database used for the present study was created according to daily classification of climate changes, environmental basic maps, and human-made influential forest fire factors. In the study area, the forest fires were registered using GPS. Expert opinions were applied through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the importance of effective factors. Fuzzy membership functions were used to standardize the thematic layers. The fire risk maps were prepared using different OWA scenarios for man-made, climatic, and environment factors. The findings revealed that roads (weight = 0.288), rainfalls (weight = 0.288), and aspects (weight = 0.255) are the major factors that contribute to the occurrence of forest fire in the study area. The forest fire maps prepared from different scenarios were validated using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Values of forest fire maps acquired from scenarios of human, environment, climate factors and their combination were 0.87, 0.731, 0.773 and 0.819, respectively.

Keywords: agents fire; ordered weighted averaging; fuzzification; analytic hierarchy process; Golestan National Park (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnljfs:v:67:y:2021:i:2:id:50-2020-jfs

DOI: 10.17221/50/2020-JFS

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