Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change

Michael Warren Shaw
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Michael Warren Shaw: School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK

Plant Protection Science, 2009, vol. 45, issue SpecialIssue, S3-S10

Abstract: Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to "back-forecast" observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.

Keywords: climate change; population dynamics; plant disease forecasting; modelling; mutation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnlpps:v:45:y:2009:i:specialissue:id:2831-pps

DOI: 10.17221/2831-PPS

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