Using thermal time to predict the timing of flight activity in Noctuidae (Lepidoptera) species: Calculation and verification of forecast methods

Alois Honěk, Zdenka Martinková, Ivo Novák, Terezia Jauschová, Lenka Sarvašová, Miroslav Saniga, Milada Holecová, Ján Kulfan and Peter Zach
Additional contact information
Alois Honěk: Czech Agrifood Research Center, Prague, Czech Republic
Zdenka Martinková: Czech Agrifood Research Center, Prague, Czech Republic
Ivo Novák: Crop Research Institute, Roztoky, Czech Republic
Terezia Jauschová: Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovak Republic
Lenka Sarvašová: Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovak Republic
Miroslav Saniga: Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovak Republic
Milada Holecová: Department of Zoology, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Ján Kulfan: Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovak Republic
Peter Zach: Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovak Republic

Plant Protection Science, vol. preprint

Abstract: From 1967 to 1995, the flight activity of 25 monovoltine species of moths (Noctuidae, Lepidoptera) was monitored via a light trap located in Prague (50.09 N, 14.30 E). For each species, the day when half of the individuals were caught (peak of flight activity, PFA) was specified each year. This study addresses a method of predicting the calendar date of the PFA via thermal time. We determined a base temperature of +6 °C, at which the differences between the predicted and actual dates of the PFA were minimal. For each species and each year, the sum of the degree days exceeding the base temperature from January 1 to the date of the PFA (SumT) was determined, and the average SumT throughout the study was calculated. Each year, the predicted date of the PFA is the date when the average SumT was achieved. Sixty-five percent of the predicted PFA dates fell within ±5 days of the actual date of the PFA. Shifts in the magnitude and direction of the difference between the actual and predicted PFAs affecting concurrently all species were caused by the thermal conditions of the year.

Keywords: base temperature; peak flight activity; prediction; thermal time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/150/2024-PPS.html (text/html)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnlpps:v:preprint:id:150-2024-pps

DOI: 10.17221/150/2024-PPS

Access Statistics for this article

Plant Protection Science is currently edited by Ing. Eva Karská, (Executive Editor PPS)

More articles in Plant Protection Science from Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ivo Andrle ().