Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français: un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande

Marie Podevin

Economie & Prévision, 2001, vol. 148, issue 2, 49-70

Abstract: This paper uses Hoover?s causal inference strategy (1990) to study the interaction between French and German short-term interest rates. The approach consists of analysing the relative invariance of the marginal and conditional distributions of the variables in question, here the French and German interest rates, in the presence of economic policy interventions. Our findings suggest Hoover uni-directional causality running from the German rates to the French rates before 1983 and after 1992, and bi-directional causality from 1987 to 1992. We deduce from this that the new EMS is less asymmetrical than the old system before the 1992 break, but that it becomes asymmetrical again after this date.

Date: 2001
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