La valorisation du projet nucléaire EPR par la méthode des options réelles

Anne Epaulard and Stéphane Gallon

Economie & Prévision, 2001, vol. 149, issue 3, 29-50

Abstract: Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices).

Keywords: Real options; nuclear power; electricity; gas price; investment; flexibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Journal Article: La valorisation du projet nucléaire EPR par la méthode des options réelles (2001)
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