Potentiels de commerce entre économies hétérogènes: un petit mode d'emploi des modèles de gravité

Lionel Fontagné, Michaël Pajot and Jean-Michel Pasteels

Economie & Prévision, 2002, vol. n° 152-153, issue 1, 115-139

Abstract: Two opposite forces determine the intensity of bilateral trade between countries: an attractive force (country size and income) and a repulsive force (distance and other barriers to trade). Building on a now well-established theoretical basis and minimum data requirements, gravity equations ? which combine the above variables ? have become one of the most popular tools for analysing international trade. And calculating trade potential is certainly their most widely used application: a gravity equation is estimated and then used for a simulation. This paper examines the problems associated with this methodology and offers original solutions, focusing particularly on choice of estimation sample. A gravity model estimated for 75 heterogeneous countries trading in 14 sectors covering 261 industries is used to illustrate this approach.

Keywords: International trade; gravity model; export potential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Journal Article: Potentiels de commerce entre économies hétérogènes: un petit mode d’emploi des modèles de gravité (2002)
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