Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité

Fabien Rondeau and Christophe Tavera ()

Economie & Prévision, 2005, vol. n° 169-170-171, issue 3, 25-39

Abstract: We evaluate the influence of international goods trade on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks among European countries. We model business-cycle interdependence as a constrained VAR process. Empirical results show a close link between shock transmissionandbilateraltradeshares.Adiffusionindicatorcorroboratesthedominatinginfluenceofthelargesteconomiessuchas France and Germany within the shock contagion process. Synchronization between European business cycles should increase if the European Monetary Union leads to an increase in intra-European trade.

Keywords: trade; shock transmission; diffusion effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Related works:
Journal Article: Interdépendance macro-économique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité (2005)
Working Paper: Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_169_0025

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