Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière

Benoît Heitz, François Hild and Brieuc Monfort

Economie & Prévision, 2006, vol. 172, issue 1, 45-61

Abstract: This article examines changes in business-cycle synchronization in the G7 economies in the past thirty years. It specifically analyzes the impact of two synchronization transmission channels: trade and financial relations. Trade relations have gradually increased over the sample period, while financial integration has accelerated since the second half of the 1980s. Using a state-space model, we identify a common business cycle for GDP, exports, and stock-market indexes. We find that the links between economies measured by trade flows and stock-market indexes have indeed increased. By contrast, using GDP as the yardstick, we cannot conclude that the economies have become more synchronized in the recent period.

Keywords: economic cycles; common factor; economic integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Journal Article: Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière (2006)
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