Les tarifications au coût marginal versus coût moyen face à des chocs climatiques au Sénégal: un modèle dynamique d'équilibre général calculable appliqué à l'eau »

Anne Briand

Economie & Prévision, 2008, vol. n° 185, issue 4, 103-122

Abstract: The model simulates two successive phases over a 20-year horizon: the first is characterized by an increase in water-resource availabilityreflecting the Senegalese government?s supply policies; the second is marked by hydrological deficits due to higher demand fueled by demographic growth. The results show that marginal-cost water pricing ? with a subsidy ensuring the survival of the water-production sector ? makes it possible to absorb the shock of the resource shortage in the long run. GDP, investment, and welfare increase. Unemployment declines and the rainfed-rice, market-gardening, and drinking-water distribution sectors expand. In contrast, the current policy of average-cost water pricing? whichaims tobalance the sector?s budget ? leadsto economic recessionin the longterm: agricultural production plunges, welfare drops sharply, and unemployment rises.

Keywords: computable general equilibrium model; dynamic; water; pricing; sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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