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La politique budgétaire et ses effets de seuil sur l'activité en Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA)

Nasser Ary Tanimoune (), Jean-Louis Combes () and Patrick Plane

Economie & Prévision, 2008, vol. n° 186, issue 5, 145-162

Abstract: In 1999, WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) countries adopted a Convergence Pact. Its main goal is to constrain national fiscal policies so as to prevent macroeconomic imbalances and preserve the credibility of the common currency. While budgetary efforts may cause recession through Keynesian mechanisms, threshold effects may also exist in the relationship between fiscal policy and economic activity. The authors test a model in which the fiscal-policy effects are conditional upon the external public-debt ratio. Endogenous threshold modeling is applied from Hansen (1999). On average, African States exert a Keynesian influence on GDP when debt ratios are less than 83%.

Keywords: fiscal policy; threshold effects; franc zone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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