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Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?

Rodrigue Mendez and Lionel Ragot ()

Economie & Prévision, 2010, vol. n° 194, issue 3, 57-78

Abstract: We use a model based on the latest forecasts by the French Retirement Advisory Council (Conseil d?Orientation des Retraites : COR) at the moment when the study was carried out and a Bootstrap simulation of the rate of return on the financial portfolio of the French Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites : FRR). Our results indicate that the FRR will cover at most 24 % of the expected deficit in 2020 and 14.9 % in 2040. We also explore the benefits and risks of a multipillar pension system in which the FRR is turned into a permanent ?public pension fund? (Fonds de Pension Public : FPP). The FPP contribution might raise the replacement rates substantially from 2050 on. However, the transition is long and risky owing to the significant probability of a lower replacement rate in the multipillar system in the first 30 years.

Keywords: PAYG pensions; multipillar; risk; Bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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