Ni déflation, ni spirale inflationniste aux États-Unis: l'apport d'une modélisation par secteurs de l'inflation sous-jacente

Vincent Grossmann-Wirth and Clotilde Pfingstag

Economie & Prévision, 2010, vol. n° 195-196, issue 4, 187-195

Abstract: While opinions differ over the inflation outlook in the United States, this study dismisses both the risk of deflation and that of an ?inflationary spiral?. Although energy prices have fluctuated widely in recent months, their spillover effects on prices and wages in the United States appears to be limited. Abreakdown and a modeling of underlying inflation by sector (goods, housing, and non-housing services) point to moderate price changes in 2011 and 2012. This finding yields insight into the Fed?s highly accommodating monetary policy, while putting criticisms of this policy into perspective, given the Fed?s mandate.

Keywords: inflation; deflation; United-States; econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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